Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
22 Virginia Commonwealth 99.4%   7   26 - 8 12 - 4 26 - 8 12 - 4 +14.0      +2.8 105 +11.2 4 77.6 19 +12.3 35 +12.9 2
42 Saint Louis 98.0%   7   25 - 6 13 - 3 25 - 6 13 - 3 +10.5      +0.6 158 +10.0 9 69.7 132 +13.3 25 +15.4 1
50 George Washington 95.0%   9   24 - 8 11 - 5 24 - 8 11 - 5 +9.8      +4.4 65 +5.4 53 69.2 142 +12.5 32 +10.8 4
52 Massachusetts 99.5%   8   24 - 8 10 - 6 24 - 8 10 - 6 +9.4      +2.9 103 +6.5 34 80.5 11 +12.3 34 +9.1 6
57 Saint Joseph's 100.0%   9   24 - 9 11 - 5 24 - 9 11 - 5 +9.1      +4.5 64 +4.6 59 66.1 220 +11.3 42 +11.1 3
60 Dayton 67.6%   11   23 - 10 10 - 6 23 - 10 10 - 6 +8.7      +6.3 36 +2.5 102 65.7 230 +9.5 58 +9.3 5
92 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   18 - 15 6 - 10 18 - 15 6 - 10 +5.7      +3.7 86 +2.0 115 70.5 110 +4.9 100 +2.7 9
95 Richmond 0.4%   19 - 14 8 - 8 19 - 14 8 - 8 +5.1      -0.2 185 +5.3 54 62.8 292 +6.1 83 +6.4 7
106 La Salle 0.0%   15 - 16 7 - 9 15 - 16 7 - 9 +4.0      +0.2 170 +3.8 76 65.0 250 +4.2 110 +5.0 8
111 Rhode Island 0.0%   13 - 18 5 - 11 13 - 18 5 - 11 +3.9      -0.1 181 +4.0 68 67.2 188 +1.4 146 +1.3 11
137 George Mason 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 12 11 - 20 4 - 12 +2.0      +0.8 155 +1.2 141 69.2 141 +0.5 159 +0.2 12
149 Duquesne 0.0%   13 - 17 5 - 11 13 - 17 5 - 11 +1.4      +3.8 80 -2.4 234 71.8 82 -0.3 171 +1.4 10
203 Fordham 0.0%   10 - 21 2 - 14 10 - 21 2 - 14 -2.4      +2.3 119 -4.7 293 72.8 66 -2.0 194 -4.6 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Virginia Commonwealth 2.0 100.0
Saint Louis 1.0 100.0
George Washington 3.0 100.0
Massachusetts 5.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 3.0 100.0
Dayton 5.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 9.0 100.0
Richmond 7.0 100.0
La Salle 8.0 100.0
Rhode Island 10.0 100.0
George Mason 12.0 100.0
Duquesne 10.0 100.0
Fordham 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 4 100.0
Saint Louis 13 - 3 100.0
George Washington 11 - 5 100.0
Massachusetts 10 - 6 100.0
Saint Joseph's 11 - 5 100.0
Dayton 10 - 6 100.0
St. Bonaventure 6 - 10 100.0
Richmond 8 - 8 100.0
La Salle 7 - 9 100.0
Rhode Island 5 - 11 100.0
George Mason 4 - 12 100.0
Duquesne 5 - 11 100.0
Fordham 2 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth
Saint Louis 100.0% 100.0
George Washington
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Dayton
St. Bonaventure
Richmond
La Salle
Rhode Island
George Mason
Duquesne
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 99.4% 0.0% 99.4% 7   0.0 1.4 12.1 29.5 42.8 12.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4%
Saint Louis 98.0% 0.0% 98.0% 7   0.0 0.8 11.0 29.1 40.8 14.1 2.1 0.1 0.0 2.0 98.0%
George Washington 95.0% 0.0% 95.0% 9   0.0 0.3 4.1 22.2 39.0 24.8 4.5 0.0 5.0 95.0%
Massachusetts 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 8   0.2 5.7 30.4 48.9 13.5 0.8 0.0 0.5 99.5%
Saint Joseph's 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 9   0.2 5.0 35.6 42.3 15.6 1.3
Dayton 67.6% 0.0% 67.6% 11   0.0 0.9 6.3 26.6 32.4 1.4 32.4 67.6%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.4%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 99.4% 0.0% 99.4% 62.0% 27.5% 12.9% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6%
Saint Louis 98.0% 0.0% 98.0% 47.7% 14.5% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
George Washington 95.0% 0.4% 94.8% 39.9% 9.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Massachusetts 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 43.2% 10.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 39.2% 8.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Dayton 67.6% 12.2% 60.6% 21.6% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.6 0.0 2.2 35.9 61.7 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 5.5 0.1 2.7 42.1 55.1 0.1
2nd Round 97.9% 2.5 2.1 13.9 32.9 33.7 14.8 2.6 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 57.1% 0.8 42.9 41.3 13.6 2.1 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 25.6% 0.3 74.4 23.3 2.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 9.1% 0.1 90.9 8.8 0.2
Final Game 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.0 0.0
Champion 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9